Sunday, September 11, 2005

Fibonacci, Elliott and the Nasdaq



It was July of 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite had already shed 20% of it's value, from just above 5,000 down to around 4,000. The freefall we had experienced was bad enough but what was still to come was inconceivable.

One of the firm's technical analysts had come to our office from New York to discuss his craft. (Technical analysis employs the use of historical performance to evaluate securities. It uses charts and market statistics to the exclusion of fundamentals like sales, earnings, management expertise, etc. to predict performance).

About a dozen financial advisors showed up to see the presentation and learn something about what our technical analysis department was thinking and see if there was anything useful to cull from the meeting. While most of us believed there was some redeeming value to technical analysis, it seemed a little too much like voodoo or witchcraft to hang our professional reputations on.

Part of the analyst's presentation dealt with Fibonacci Retracements combined with Elliott Waves and the uncanny accuracy this technique produced. One disbeliever asked, from the back of the room, "So, what do your fiba-what-cha-ma-call-it numbers say the market's gonna do?"

The analyst hesitated to respond but finally admitted that his analysis put the Nasdaq at between 1,000 and 1,200. That would be 2,800-3,000 points below it's value on that summer day five years ago and nearly 4,000 points below its high! Unbelievable. People walked out. It was totally absurd to even consider that kind of bloodbath. Impossible.

It took a little more than two years, but in September of 2002 the Nasdaq finally bottomed at just under 1,200, exactly as the analyst had predicted. It makes one stop and think, doesn't it?

The technical analyst who spoke to us that day was Rick Bensignor.

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://aquiledelconero.altervista.org/portale/?q=node/21642 seriask earn cash online FaubremeLam [url=http://www.defendantlawyers.com/no-fax-payday-loans-online-suited-smidgen-nobleman]earn money online like us[/url]

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online buy tramadol online worldwide - tramadol hcl 200

Anonymous said...

xanax online xanax pills street value - xanax interactions more drug_interactions

Anonymous said...

Hello. And Bye. Thank you very much.

Anonymous said...

order tramadol online cod tramadol high blood pressure medication - order tramadol usa

Anonymous said...

buy xanax online cod xanax dosage elderly - xanax overdose symptoms treatment

Anonymous said...

Hello. And Bye. Thank you very much.

Anonymous said...

carisoprodol 350 mg buy cheap carisoprodol - carisoprodol buy online no prescription

Anonymous said...

where to buy tramadol online tramadol withdrawal taper - safe place buy tramadol online

Anonymous said...

carisoprodol 350 mg carisoprodol soma indications - carisoprodol soma watson

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online tramadol ultram schedule - tramadol hcl 100mg

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online buy tramadol usa paypal - tramadol 50 mg online pharmacy

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online tramadol 50 mg bula - aspirin vs tramadol for dogs

Anonymous said...

xanax pills long does 2mg xanax last - drug interactions xanax trazadone

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online tramadol overdose long term effects - tramadol overdose with alcohol

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online tramadol overdose coma - tramadol hcl 50 mg half life

Anonymous said...

xanax online xanax generic equivalent - xanax 0.25mg dosage

Anonymous said...

cialis online buy cialis online in australia - how to order cialis

Anonymous said...

buy cialis 10mg buying cialis online legal - should you buy cialis online

Anonymous said...

tramadol no prescription tramadol high booze - what is tramadol hcl 50 mg used for

Anonymous said...

20000 :) buy celecoxib - generic celebrex cost http://www.celebrexpharmsite.net/, [url=http://www.celebrexpharmsite.net/]buy celebrex no prescription [/url]

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol 100mg buy tramadol usa - tramadol 100 mg injetavel

Anonymous said...

http://landvoicelearning.com/#30896 tramadol 50mg for dogs safe for humans - buy tramadol from thailand

Anonymous said...

aaa!!! Topamax Cost - buy topamax without prescription http://www.topamaxbestonline.net/#topamax-online, [url=http://www.topamaxbestonline.net/#topamax-online]Order Topamax[/url]

Anonymous said...

03 buy bupropion - buy bupropion http://www.wellbutrinforsaleonline.net/#zyban-sale, [url=http://www.wellbutrinforsaleonline.net/#wellbutrin-online]wellbutrin online[/url]

Anonymous said...

4, lasix online - cheap lasix without prescription http://www.lasixordernow.net/#cheap-furosemide, lasix online

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online tramadol 100mg bestellen - tramadol hcl drug classification

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol where can i buy tramadol in the usa - tramadol 50mg for dogs and humans

Anonymous said...

learn how to buy tramdadol tramadol er 100mg side effects - buy tramadol safely

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online tramadol withdrawal in babies - tramadol for dogs overdose

Anonymous said...

learn how to buy tramdadol buy tramadol legally - tramadol (ultram) prescribing information

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online generic tramadol buy - does tramadol hcl do you

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol 180 where to order tramadol online - tramadol online fedex

Anonymous said...

http://ranchodelastortugas.com/#50238 many pills xanax overdose - can you overdose 6 xanax

Anonymous said...

xanax antidepressant xanax overdose what to do - xanax bars gg

Anonymous said...

cheap tramadolonline buy tramadol online cheap - buy tramadolno prescription overnight

Anonymous said...

Buy Priligy Online where to buy priligy in singapore - buy cialis with priligy